Won't be able to analyze much again until tonight, but just took a look at the newest NAM model data from this morning.....
Couple things to keep in mind about the NAM model. It has a fairly decent track record this winter after being much maligned the last couple of years. I have noticed that it has a tendency to get some of the bigger storms right on.
Total Precip...
ACY: 2"
Cape May: 3"
NYC: 0.2"
Morristown: 0.25"
Trenton: 1.2"
Philly: 1.7"
Baltimore: 2.2"
BWI: 2.5"
DC: 2.3"
The model shows only the coastal plain getting above freezing aloft (which would translate to sleet and/or rain). At this point, only southeast Delaware through Cape May County, NJ get there long enough to really dent snow totals.
So with that in mind...some quick ranges.
NYC: I'll keep 3-6" for now, but it's getting close to being dropped to 2-4".
North Central NJ: 3-6" should be safe for now.
New Brunswick: 4-8"
Trenton: 6-12"
Coastal Ocean/Monmouth: 6-12", with higher amounts in Ocean.
Coastal Atlantic (~ LBI-Ocean City): 7-14"
Cape May County/GSP Corridor in Atlantic County: 7-14", with chance for higher amounts
Interior South Jersey (most of Atlantic County W of GSP, Cumberland, Salem, Gloucester): 12-20", may be some isolated higher amounts from ACY-Millville...may be some isolated lower amounts in the GSP corridor.
Dover: 12-20"
Salisbury: 5-10", with higher amounts possible if sleet never materializes.
Philly: 6-12" N & W suburbs, 12-18" City, 12-20"+ Delaware/Chester Counties
Harrisburg: 6-12"
Baltimore: 12-24"
DC: 12-24"
All amounts subject to change, obviously. I'll have another (probably final) map tonight around 11 PM EST for you all.
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2 comments:
Good stuff Matt. Now the question is when does the light stuff start, and then when does the heavy stuff start? Also, when do you sleep?
Sleep is for wimps. Start time is tomorrow afternoon late. Heaviest overnight into like 10 am Saturday. Winding down Saturday afternoon.
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