Since the second blizzard struck, there's been a consensus that another, weaker storm was going to be on the radar for early next week for folks in the East. Unfortunately, this forecast isn't going to be any easier than the others. The general consensus to me appears that there are three possibilities for this storm. All three have it hitting Monday afternoon in DC/Baltimore to Tuesday night in New England.
Option 1.) The upper level energy coming out of Eastern Canada doesn't quite latch into the storm system in time to really blow it up. This leads to a disjointed storm, with generally light snows in DC, MD, PA, and NJ, with slightly heavier snows north and west of the Big Cities. Then, as the storm finally organizes, it hits parts of New England fairly hard, with heavy snow north of I-90 and east of I-87 in N MA, NH, VT and ME. South and east of the Big Cities, you may even see a mix with freezing rain or even rain. Snow amounts would be 1-3" from DC-NYC, 3-6" for most of North Jersey (N of I-78), with a pocket of 6-10" in the higher elevation of Sussex County and the Poconos, as well as the Catskills. Boston would end up with 3-6", but areas north and west of the City would see 6-12".
Option 2.) The upper level energy coming out of Eastern Canada moves a bit faster and gets latched into the storm sooner. This would create slightly better snows for DC, MD, PA and NJ, with several inches in the Big Cities, but nothing crippling. But this gets going for areas north of I-80 and east of I-81, hammering parts of far north NJ, the Poconos and much of Central New York, then spreading moderate snows into New England. Snow amounts would be 2-4" from DC-BOS, 1-3" East of there. 4-8" would fall in Central PA and much of North NJ, north of I-78. There would be a pocket of 6-12" in Sussex County, NJ, the Catskills and the Poconos through about the southern Berkshires. The heaviest snow would be in Central NY, south of I-90, where 8-16" would fall, with a bullseye between Binghamton and Syracuse. The rest of New England would see a general 3-6".
Option 3.) This would be almost a combination of options one and two, with a stronger storm than option one, but the same general pattern. This would spread modest snows into all the big cities, with NYC and Boston being hit the hardest. The heaviest snow would fall north of I-195 in NJ and east of I-87, with a bullseye over interior CT, RI or MA. Snow amounts would be a general 2-4" from DC to Philly, 3-6" from Philly to NYC and Long Island through Boston. Hartford up through Worcester would see about 4-8", with some higher amounts. Everyone else would see a general 1-4".
So the only one of these scenarios that produces truly intense snows in scenario two, which to me seems like an outlier at this time. Right now, I'd favor Option 3, with the heaviest snow in parts of New England, and generally nuisance snows elsewhere. But time will tell.
Reviewing the last two storms
Here's my self-imposed verification on the last two storms to hit. I'll be using my final forecast as the benchmark, using NWS official totals as my verification. Color coded, where green is a hit, red a miss, and yellow is mixed results.
Blizzard #1
NYC: 1-4" Bronx to 4-8" Staten Island/Brooklyn (higher amounts possible) (Actual: Zip Bronx, Trace Manhattan, 1-2" Brooklyn, 4-6" Staten Island..right idea, but overdone to the north).
Morristown: 3-6"(Actual: < style="color: rgb(255, 255, 0);">New Brunswick: 6-10"(Actual: 5-8"..a little high, but acceptable)
Coastal Monmouth/Ocean: 6-10" Sandy Hook, 10-15" Belmar, 12-18" Seaside Heights, 12-24" LBI (6-10" Sandy Hook, 8-12" Belmar, 15" Pt Pleasant, 16-20" Seaside Heights, 14-18" LBI...acceptable).
Trenton: 10-15" (Actual: 10-12". Acceptable.)
Philly: 10-15" North, 12-18" Airport (14-20" North, 24-30" Airport...right idea, way too low)
Allentown: 6-10" (6-8". Acceptable)
Atlantic/Cape May/Cumberland Counties: 15-24", with isolated higher amounts. (12-25". Acceptable, but few higher amounts)
Wilmington: 12-20" (18-27" Right idea, too low)
Dover: 15-24"+ (17-24". Acceptable)
Baltimore: 15-30" (24.8" BWI, 20-32" Areawide. A little too broad a range here).
DC: 15-30" (17.8" DCA. 18-28" elsewhere. Better than Balt, but still a bit too broad).
Delmarva: 12-24" south of Dover, 6-12" Salisbury, 2-5" Chincoteague (12-25" South of Dover, 12-20" Salisbury, 6-10" Chincoteague. Way underdone south of Delaware.)
Blizzard #2
Albany: 3-7", with higher amounts just south and in the hilltops (locally up to 8-10") (0.5-3" ALB, 1-3" Hilltops. Bad miss)
Western Mass (W of I-91): 6-12" in the Berkshires, 4-9" elsewhere (0.5-3" Bad miss)
S New Hampshire and Vermont (A line from US 4 to I-93 and south): 2-5" north, 4-9" south NH, with higher amounts likely the closer you get to the MA line..very sharp cutoff between light snow and significant snow. (Right idea, but way off on totals. 1-2")
Boston area: 4-9" north west, 6-12" in the City, 7-14" possible south and east, with isolated higher amounts (1-5" City, 1-3" N & W, 3-8" south and east. Right idea again, but bad miss on totals).
Cape Cod: 6-12"+ (3-8" Miss)
Providence: 7-14" (2-10" Miss)
Hartford: 7-14" (2-5" Miss)
Southwest CT/NYC: 6-12" (Locally higher amounts possible) (4-12" North, 8-15" South)
Long Island: 5-16" (Some eastern areas may see less...some areas on the interior island may see more) (7-16" Islandwide...decent amounts, not quite up to snuff).
Hudson Valley: 3-8" in the Valley, 6-12" in the Catskills (8-14" South, 3-12" Central, less north. Generally a miss).
Northeast NJ (Bergen, Passaic, Hudson, Essex, Union): 6-12", iso higher amounts (8-14", with higher amounts in Union...generally ok).
Northwest NJ (Sussex, Morris, Warren, Hunterdon): 5-10" Northwest to 6-12" southeast (6-12" Sussex, 8-15" south. A little low on totals)
Poconos: 5-10" (6-18" Low on totals)
Allentown: 7-14" (12-18" Low on totals)
Central NJ (North of I-195): 7-14" (12-20". Low on totals)
Southeast NJ (Atlantic, Cape May, Cumberland): 4-9" inland, 3-6" on the Coast. Some light icing and/or sleet accumulation (3-8" Coast, 4-12" inland. Acceptable)
Southwest NJ (Salem, Gloucester, Camden): 8-16"+ (8-18 North, 12-20 South. Acceptable)
Philly: 8-16"+ (12-20". Acceptable. 15.8" PHL)
North of Philly (Bucks/Montgomery): 7-14" (12-24" Too low).
West of Philly (Delaware/Chester): 10-20" (14-27" Too low).
Northern Delaware (north of Dover): 8-16" (8-14". Acceptable).
Southern Delaware: 3-6" inland, 2-4" on the coast (4-8", with higher amounts north. Too low).
Salisbury: 2-5" (2-10". Too low).
Baltimore: 10-18" (12-24" Right idea, a little low, 19.5" BWI).
Washington: 7-14" (10.5" DCA, 8-16". Right idea).
Harrisburg: 8-16" with higher amounts possible toward York and Lancaster (8-16" North, 12-24" South. Acceptable)
Richmond: Trace south to 1-4" north. (2-4" areawide. Acceptable).
Overall, I did better on the first storm than the second. But I did do ok in illustrating the potential wrinkles in the 2nd storm as well. So as long as people read and listened to why the forecast was what it was, they'd understand what happened. But, if people just look at amounts, they'll be less forgiving. Which is understandable. Some good lessons learned though for future storms!
Saturday, February 13, 2010
Wednesday, February 10, 2010
No Rest for the Weary....
After another unbelievable storm in the East, time to focus attention on the next big thing. I'll do a post-storm(s) wrap up probably Friday and just verify myself. I know I busted hard in New England with this current storm, but I had some other successes vs. prevailing forecasts as well. Win a few, lose a few...that's how it goes.
Snow in the Deep South
The next system is a southern one. Looks like some snow will end up on the Gulf Coast from this one. I posted an image here...if you look at the top right panel of it, you can see how much of the forecasted precipitation is expected to be snow. Looks like an area of 0.6" just north of Pensacola. This area actually extends back to Dallas. So I would argue that 2-5" with isolated 5-7" amounts are possible from just north of DFW over to Shreveport, LA and into Southern Mississippi. The highest amounts look possible from about Tyler, TX-Meridian, MS. 1-3" amounts possible in Central/North-Central Alabama/Mississippi. 1-2" possible from just north of New Orleans over to just north of Panama City. A trace of snow is possible down to the Gulf Coast itself west of Tallahassee.
This gets us through about Friday morning. This storm will move to the coast and likely drop some snow on Central and Southern Georgia. We could see up to 2 to maybe 3" into Atlanta and much of the rest of Georgia south of there. The big question marks occur as this thing reaches the coast. Some of the models are indicating a fair amount of moisture gets thrown back into cold air. It's too early to say much with certainty, but a light snow accumulation is also possible in coastal North Carolina south of Cape Lookout and along the coast of South Carolina as well. All in all, an interesting storm to follow.
Don't Look Now....
...but the models continue to indicate a VERY interesting pattern in the Northeast next Monday and Tuesday. A storm system diving out of the Canadian Prairies is forecasted to swing across the Dakotas, Iowa, Illinois and into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, dropping some light snows in these areas. This system will have lots of energy, but will be somewhat starved for moisture (the air over the East is going to be so cold, it limits how much moisture each storm can have...the old adage, "it's too cold to snow."). But, the models show a very dynamic pattern over the Northeast and decide to try and blow up this storm as it approaches the coast. Given seasonal trends and recent model consistency, this idea seems plausible, and if this were to occur, additional accumulating snow would be likely from North Carolina, through DC, BWI, NJ and into Long Island and coastal New England. Will this actually happen? Too early to say, but climatologically speaking, this wouldn't be a drastic deviation from both recent and historical climatology for a good storm in the Northeast.
Overall, even if this does come to fruition, at this point, snow totals look generally lighter, and the snow consistency would be MUCH drier than you've seen over the last week, which could actually give a boost to the overall totals. At this point, I would say at minimum a 2-5" system is likely, but there is high risk that this could be more interesting. Stay tuned.
And truth be told, for the next 2 weeks, I don't see anything to indicate the weather is going to turn terribly quiet. Still plentiful moisture available courtesy of El Nino and an active jet stream...and plenty of blocking in the atmosphere to help amplify things. The only question is who, what and where.
Here in California....
...it will be boring the next 6-10 days, with plentiful sunshine and temperature soaring once again...possibly to near 80 degrees. Don't hate.
Tuesday, February 9, 2010
Quick Wrap on the Forecast for Wednesday
After a day of active weather out here in LA, with thunderstorms this afternoon, time to put a wrap on the forecast portion of the storm in the East. Model data is only partially useful at this point. The radar image to the right shows the first wave of precipitation from the storm in the East. Heavy snow has fallen from Philly into South Jersey and parts of Delaware. What's of more interest is the band of "yellow" on the radar in Cape May County, NJ over into Central Delaware. That's generally a good radar signature of sleet or freezing rain, rather than snow...a rough estimate of a rain/snow line. So you can see what's going on. While the first part of this storm did admittedly put a little more snow down in South NJ than I expected, there is a ton of warm air not far above the ground in that area. That means a mix is likely for the rest of the night until the back edge moves through tomorrow morning.
We're already seeing good snow reports, with 1-4" around DC and 3-6" around Baltimore, 2-5" around Philly/N Delaware. Thus, my snowfall totals south of NYC will remain unchanged.
Still liking the idea of the heaviest amounts in Southwest NJ down to BWI and up into Southeast PA. Newer models suggest less snow deeper into PA, back toward Harrisburg/Lancaster. I would lower amounts there a bit. Also like a secondary maximum in Southeast Massachusetts. Boston is still on the fringe of the heavier snow....tough call for you. Long Island will be vulnerable to mixing, so again a high bust potential there on either side. NYC still looks good for a 6-12" snow, with isolated potential for some higher amounts. Generally looks like amounts will be lighter further north into CT/Hudson Valley.
So we'll see. This was a very complex forecast. Lots of uncertainty in New England/Upstate NY and some uncertainty in other areas that did not exist in the last storm. Hopefully it all works out.
Oh, and by the way, the newest model runs suggesting what was a benign system early next week develops into yet another major storm from Baltimore-Boston. This one would have limited to no precipitation type issues and would be a cold, dry snow. Long way away. Stay tuned.
Final Call on the 2/9-2/10 Winter Storm
The first waves of snow and sleet are moving into the Mid Atlantic and Northeast this afternoon, out ahead of our next winter storm. This storm is a strong, dynamic system, so again, higher amounts are possible almost anywhere with this one due to banding/thunder. Banding is essentially when areas of snowfall condense into bands and generally fall very heavily. This creates some of the biggest disparities in snow totals during a storm, with areas under the band getting crushed, and areas just a few miles away getting light snow.
Here is the final call on totals for this event. I increased some areas of Massachusetts over to Albany. I increased Hartford a bit, as well as the Hudson Valley. Made some changes to Long Island, raised parts of Central Jersey, and lowered totals in Southeast Jersey, Delmarva and DC:
Albany: 3-7", with higher amounts just south and in the hilltops (locally up to 8-10")
Western Mass (W of I-91): 6-12" in the Berkshires, 4-9" elsewhere
S New Hampshire and Vermont (A line from US 4 to I-93 and south): 2-5" north, 4-9" south NH, with higher amounts likely the closer you get to the MA line..very sharp cutoff between light snow and significant snow.
Boston area: 4-9" north west, 6-12" in the City, 7-14" possible south and east, with isolated higher amounts
Cape Cod: 6-12"+
Providence: 7-14"
Hartford: 7-14"
Southwest CT/NYC: 6-12" (Locally higher amounts possible)
Long Island: 5-16" (Some eastern areas may see less...some areas on the interior island may see more)
Hudson Valley: 3-8" in the Valley, 6-12" in the Catskills
Northeast NJ (Bergen, Passaic, Hudson, Essex, Union): 6-12", iso higher amounts
Northwest NJ (Sussex, Morris, Warren, Hunterdon): 5-10" Northwest to 6-12" southeast
Poconos: 5-10"
Allentown: 7-14"
Central NJ (North of I-195): 7-14"
Southeast NJ (Atlantic, Cape May, Cumberland): 4-9" inland, 3-6" on the Coast. Some light icing and/or sleet accumulation
Southwest NJ (Salem, Gloucester, Camden): 8-16"+
Philly: 8-16"+
North of Philly (Bucks/Montgomery): 7-14"
West of Philly (Delaware/Chester): 10-20"
Northern Delaware (north of Dover): 8-16"
Southern Delaware: 3-6" inland, 2-4" on the coast
Salisbury: 2-5"
Baltimore: 10-18"
Washington: 7-14"
Harrisburg: 8-16" with higher amounts possible toward York and Lancaster
Richmond: Trace south to 1-4" north.
Feel free to comment/ask a question below.
Here is the final call on totals for this event. I increased some areas of Massachusetts over to Albany. I increased Hartford a bit, as well as the Hudson Valley. Made some changes to Long Island, raised parts of Central Jersey, and lowered totals in Southeast Jersey, Delmarva and DC:
Albany: 3-7", with higher amounts just south and in the hilltops (locally up to 8-10")
Western Mass (W of I-91): 6-12" in the Berkshires, 4-9" elsewhere
S New Hampshire and Vermont (A line from US 4 to I-93 and south): 2-5" north, 4-9" south NH, with higher amounts likely the closer you get to the MA line..very sharp cutoff between light snow and significant snow.
Boston area: 4-9" north west, 6-12" in the City, 7-14" possible south and east, with isolated higher amounts
Cape Cod: 6-12"+
Providence: 7-14"
Hartford: 7-14"
Southwest CT/NYC: 6-12" (Locally higher amounts possible)
Long Island: 5-16" (Some eastern areas may see less...some areas on the interior island may see more)
Hudson Valley: 3-8" in the Valley, 6-12" in the Catskills
Northeast NJ (Bergen, Passaic, Hudson, Essex, Union): 6-12", iso higher amounts
Northwest NJ (Sussex, Morris, Warren, Hunterdon): 5-10" Northwest to 6-12" southeast
Poconos: 5-10"
Allentown: 7-14"
Central NJ (North of I-195): 7-14"
Southeast NJ (Atlantic, Cape May, Cumberland): 4-9" inland, 3-6" on the Coast. Some light icing and/or sleet accumulation
Southwest NJ (Salem, Gloucester, Camden): 8-16"+
Philly: 8-16"+
North of Philly (Bucks/Montgomery): 7-14"
West of Philly (Delaware/Chester): 10-20"
Northern Delaware (north of Dover): 8-16"
Southern Delaware: 3-6" inland, 2-4" on the coast
Salisbury: 2-5"
Baltimore: 10-18"
Washington: 7-14"
Harrisburg: 8-16" with higher amounts possible toward York and Lancaster
Richmond: Trace south to 1-4" north.
Feel free to comment/ask a question below.
Monday, February 8, 2010
Tuesday-Wednesday Storm Update (and some other tidbits!)
New model data is in late this evening, and here we go again.
Here are my previous thoughts, which generally are unchanged: http://mattlanza.blogspot.com/2010/02/snowmageddon-part-iv.html
However, there have been some significant changes in the new data regarding both the northern extent of the snow, as well as where the heaviest totals may end up occurring.
One of the biggest question marks this morning was how much snow Boston to the Hudson Valley and points north would receive. The newer data indicates that some considerable changes in those areas are to be expected. Precip amounts came in considerably lighter in Vermont and New Hampshire and the Boston Metro area, as well as Albany. All the models we use are generally in decent agreement regarding this trend.
One other item of note: Mentioned this in the other entry, but wanted to emphasize here that this will be a much windier storm than the previous, especially inland. Blizzard conditions will be likely on the coasts from Delmarva through Cape Cod. Localized blizzard conditions will be possible inland as well. Remember, by definition, you only need strong winds and low visibility due to snow to meet blizzard criteria...snowfall rate, temperature, etc. mean nothing to the definition of "blizzard." So even though amounts will be less with this storm overall than the one this weekend, this storm may be more like a blizzard than the previous.
So with that in mind, here are revised snow total estimates. I have bolded those that are seeing significant differences compared to my thoughts 12 hours ago:
Initial snowfall estimates:
Albany: 2-6", with higher amounts just south and in the hilltops
Western Mass (W of I-91): 4-8" in the Berkshires, 3-6" elsewhere (higher amounts possible depending on track).
S New Hampshire and Vermont (A line from US 4 to I-93 and south): 1-3" north, 2-15" south NH, with higher amounts likely the closer you get to the MA line..very sharp cutoff between light snow and significant snow.
Boston area: 3-6" north west, 5-10" in the City, 6-12" possible south and east until you hit the rain.
Cape Cod: 6-12"+
Providence: 6-12"
Hartford: 6-10"
Southwest CT/NYC: 6-12" (Higher amounts possible in I-95 corridor in CT and Brooklyn/Queens)
Long Island: 6-12" West 8-16" East
Hudson Valley: 2-6" Kingston area to 5-10" Newburgh/Harriman
Northeast NJ (Bergen, Passaic, Hudson, Essex, Union): 6-12", iso higher amounts
Northwest NJ (Sussex, Morris, Warren, Hunterdon): 5-10" Northwest to 6-12" southeast
Poconos: 6-12"
Allentown: 7-14"
Central NJ (North of I-195): 6-12"+
Southeast NJ (Atlantic, Cape May, Cumberland): 5-10" inland, 4-8" on the Coast. Some light icing and/or sleet accumulation
Southwest NJ (Salem, Gloucester, Camden): 8-16"+
Philly: 8-16"+
North of Philly (Bucks/Montgomery): 7-14"
West of Philly (Delaware/Chester): 10-18"
Northern Delaware (north of Dover): 8-16"
Southern Delaware: 6-12" inland, 4-8" on the coast
Salisbury: 3-7"
Baltimore: 10-20"
Washington: 8-16"
Harrisburg: 7-14" with higher amounts possible.
Richmond: Trace south to 3-5" north.
I'll have another update for you all Tuesday afternoon around the time of first pitch.
Other News...
Looks like another round of rain for Southern California Tuesday into Wednesday. Lost in the Blizzard were a round of significant mudflows/mudslides that damaged or destroyed several homes downhill from the burn areas from the massive Station Fire this past August/September. This round may also produce some storms that cause heavy rainfall rates in the mountains. The trajectory is just offshore, so this could actually produce some decent rains for the LA Metro area.
This next storm in SoCal will become the next storm of interest further east, but this time for folks in Dixie, with snow expected in parts of Central Texas and into Louisiana. Some questions as to how much (air temperatures may not be cold enough for significant accumulation), but snow should be falling from Dallas to Shreveport for the middle to end of the week. In addition, as this spreads east on Friday/Saturday, snow is possible across Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia. There are questions as to the exact track of the storm, but interestingly enough, some of the new data brings a band of snow from just north of Pensacola, FL and Mobile, AL to just north of New Orleans into Baton Rouge. Other data suggests this potential for snow will be further north, perhaps into Atlanta. So stay tuned.
Continued wicked cold in the East and South over the next 5-10 days. This will help to keep most storminess suppressed to the south (aka the old adage, it's too cold to snow). There may be a weak system early next week that brings lighter snows across the Ohio Valley into the East. Still too soon to say much about that. Stay tuned.
Here are my previous thoughts, which generally are unchanged: http://mattlanza.blogspot.com/2010/02/snowmageddon-part-iv.html
However, there have been some significant changes in the new data regarding both the northern extent of the snow, as well as where the heaviest totals may end up occurring.
One of the biggest question marks this morning was how much snow Boston to the Hudson Valley and points north would receive. The newer data indicates that some considerable changes in those areas are to be expected. Precip amounts came in considerably lighter in Vermont and New Hampshire and the Boston Metro area, as well as Albany. All the models we use are generally in decent agreement regarding this trend.
One other item of note: Mentioned this in the other entry, but wanted to emphasize here that this will be a much windier storm than the previous, especially inland. Blizzard conditions will be likely on the coasts from Delmarva through Cape Cod. Localized blizzard conditions will be possible inland as well. Remember, by definition, you only need strong winds and low visibility due to snow to meet blizzard criteria...snowfall rate, temperature, etc. mean nothing to the definition of "blizzard." So even though amounts will be less with this storm overall than the one this weekend, this storm may be more like a blizzard than the previous.
So with that in mind, here are revised snow total estimates. I have bolded those that are seeing significant differences compared to my thoughts 12 hours ago:
Initial snowfall estimates:
Albany: 2-6", with higher amounts just south and in the hilltops
Western Mass (W of I-91): 4-8" in the Berkshires, 3-6" elsewhere (higher amounts possible depending on track).
S New Hampshire and Vermont (A line from US 4 to I-93 and south): 1-3" north, 2-15" south NH, with higher amounts likely the closer you get to the MA line..very sharp cutoff between light snow and significant snow.
Boston area: 3-6" north west, 5-10" in the City, 6-12" possible south and east until you hit the rain.
Cape Cod: 6-12"+
Providence: 6-12"
Hartford: 6-10"
Southwest CT/NYC: 6-12" (Higher amounts possible in I-95 corridor in CT and Brooklyn/Queens)
Long Island: 6-12" West 8-16" East
Hudson Valley: 2-6" Kingston area to 5-10" Newburgh/Harriman
Northeast NJ (Bergen, Passaic, Hudson, Essex, Union): 6-12", iso higher amounts
Northwest NJ (Sussex, Morris, Warren, Hunterdon): 5-10" Northwest to 6-12" southeast
Poconos: 6-12"
Allentown: 7-14"
Central NJ (North of I-195): 6-12"+
Southeast NJ (Atlantic, Cape May, Cumberland): 5-10" inland, 4-8" on the Coast. Some light icing and/or sleet accumulation
Southwest NJ (Salem, Gloucester, Camden): 8-16"+
Philly: 8-16"+
North of Philly (Bucks/Montgomery): 7-14"
West of Philly (Delaware/Chester): 10-18"
Northern Delaware (north of Dover): 8-16"
Southern Delaware: 6-12" inland, 4-8" on the coast
Salisbury: 3-7"
Baltimore: 10-20"
Washington: 8-16"
Harrisburg: 7-14" with higher amounts possible.
Richmond: Trace south to 3-5" north.
I'll have another update for you all Tuesday afternoon around the time of first pitch.
Other News...
Looks like another round of rain for Southern California Tuesday into Wednesday. Lost in the Blizzard were a round of significant mudflows/mudslides that damaged or destroyed several homes downhill from the burn areas from the massive Station Fire this past August/September. This round may also produce some storms that cause heavy rainfall rates in the mountains. The trajectory is just offshore, so this could actually produce some decent rains for the LA Metro area.
This next storm in SoCal will become the next storm of interest further east, but this time for folks in Dixie, with snow expected in parts of Central Texas and into Louisiana. Some questions as to how much (air temperatures may not be cold enough for significant accumulation), but snow should be falling from Dallas to Shreveport for the middle to end of the week. In addition, as this spreads east on Friday/Saturday, snow is possible across Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia. There are questions as to the exact track of the storm, but interestingly enough, some of the new data brings a band of snow from just north of Pensacola, FL and Mobile, AL to just north of New Orleans into Baton Rouge. Other data suggests this potential for snow will be further north, perhaps into Atlanta. So stay tuned.
Continued wicked cold in the East and South over the next 5-10 days. This will help to keep most storminess suppressed to the south (aka the old adage, it's too cold to snow). There may be a weak system early next week that brings lighter snows across the Ohio Valley into the East. Still too soon to say much about that. Stay tuned.
Snowmageddon, Part IV
Another challenging storm looks to be moving through parts of the Northeast on Tuesday night through Wednesday night. This one is more complex than the last few, as straight snow won't be the only form of precipitation. The mess comes in two waves...one Tuesday afternoon through early Wednesday morning. The second comes Wednesday early morning in DC to Wednesday evening in Boston.
The first wave will be complex. It will likely start out as some snow, become heavy, and then transition over to a mix of rain and freezing rain south and east of I-95. The heaviest precip will fall from DC to South Jersey. The best chance for any ice accumulation will be north and west of a line from about Jackson, NJ-Salem, NJ-Annapolis, MD and north and west to I-95. Freezing rain, if you'll recall, just means it's raining and freezing on surfaces. There could be some sleet as well, but this looks to be primarily a rain vs. freezing rain vs. snow event.
Now, north and west of I-95, snow will develop and become heavy around or after midnight from Southeast PA through Central and Northern NJ. Unlike the last few storms, snow should have little to no problem spreading all the way up to at least I-84 and possibly further north.
Then, as the storm begins to explode off the Delmarva coast, a new band of heavy snow..just snow...will develop west of DC and spread north and east. In addition, the northern and eastern fringe of the original stuff from Tuesday night will begin expanding and intensifying over southeast New England....this includes Boston, Providence and areas east of I-91. Cape Cod will likely see a mix or rain with this batch.
That area of heavy snow near DC will expand and lift northeast through Philly, South Jersey and Central Jersey and then move offshore by Wednesday evening.
Thunder will be possible in this area of snow and ridiculous snow rates are once again likely, which will lead to a disparity in the highest snow totals. In addition, the wind will rev up, creating localized blizzard conditions once again. It will turn quite cold behind this storm.
The biggest trouble spots regarding forecasting accumulation are going to be along and north of I-84. These areas will see snow, but the question as to how much is incredibly variable, with some models saying as little as 2-4" and other saying spots over 12-14".
Conditions should be clearing by Wendesday evening. Weather looks ok for most folks through the weekend. Lake snows will develop behind this storm. Another system may spread some light wintry precip from north Texas to parts of the Southeast on Thursday night and Friday.
Initial snowfall estimates:
Albany: 3-8", with higher amounts just south and in the hilltops...and higher amounts anywhere possible depending on storm track (Potential for a foot in spots).
Western Mass (W of I-91): 6-12" in the Berkshires, 4-8" elsewhere (higher amounts possible depending on track).
S New Hampshire and Vermont (A line from US 4 to I-93 and south): 2-5" north, 5-10" south NH, with higher amounts likely the closer you get to the MA line
Boston area: 5-10" north west, 7-14" in the City, 8-16"+ possible south and east until you hit the rain. Heaviest amounts possible from Plymouth to Taunton (12-20").
Cape Cod: 3-8"
Providence: 8-16"
Hartford: 6-12"+
Southwest CT/NYC: 5-10"
Long Island: 5-10" West 6-12" East
Newburgh-Kingston: 5-10"
Northeast NJ (Bergen, Passaic, Hudson, Essex, Union): 6-12"
Northwest NJ (Sussex, Morris, Warren, Hunterdon): 3-7"+ Northwest to 6-12" southeast
Poconos: 4-8"
Allentown: 6-12"
Central NJ (North I-195): 5-10", with 6-12" possible near I-195
Southeast NJ (Atlantic, Cape May, Cumberland): 6-12"
Southwest NJ (Salem, Gloucester, Camden): 8-16"
Philly: 8-16"
North of Philly (Bucks/Montgomery): 7-14"
West of Philly (Delaware/Chester): 8-16"+
Northern Delaware (north of Dover): 8-16"
Southern Delaware: 6-12"
Salisbury: 4-8"
Baltimore: 8-16"+
Washington: 8-16"
Harrisburg: 6-12" with higher amounts possible.
Richmond: Trace south to 3-5" north.
Bullseyes look to be north and east of DC to Philly, as well as the ribbon around Boston-Providence.
Another update later.
The first wave will be complex. It will likely start out as some snow, become heavy, and then transition over to a mix of rain and freezing rain south and east of I-95. The heaviest precip will fall from DC to South Jersey. The best chance for any ice accumulation will be north and west of a line from about Jackson, NJ-Salem, NJ-Annapolis, MD and north and west to I-95. Freezing rain, if you'll recall, just means it's raining and freezing on surfaces. There could be some sleet as well, but this looks to be primarily a rain vs. freezing rain vs. snow event.
Now, north and west of I-95, snow will develop and become heavy around or after midnight from Southeast PA through Central and Northern NJ. Unlike the last few storms, snow should have little to no problem spreading all the way up to at least I-84 and possibly further north.
Then, as the storm begins to explode off the Delmarva coast, a new band of heavy snow..just snow...will develop west of DC and spread north and east. In addition, the northern and eastern fringe of the original stuff from Tuesday night will begin expanding and intensifying over southeast New England....this includes Boston, Providence and areas east of I-91. Cape Cod will likely see a mix or rain with this batch.
That area of heavy snow near DC will expand and lift northeast through Philly, South Jersey and Central Jersey and then move offshore by Wednesday evening.
Thunder will be possible in this area of snow and ridiculous snow rates are once again likely, which will lead to a disparity in the highest snow totals. In addition, the wind will rev up, creating localized blizzard conditions once again. It will turn quite cold behind this storm.
The biggest trouble spots regarding forecasting accumulation are going to be along and north of I-84. These areas will see snow, but the question as to how much is incredibly variable, with some models saying as little as 2-4" and other saying spots over 12-14".
Conditions should be clearing by Wendesday evening. Weather looks ok for most folks through the weekend. Lake snows will develop behind this storm. Another system may spread some light wintry precip from north Texas to parts of the Southeast on Thursday night and Friday.
Initial snowfall estimates:
Albany: 3-8", with higher amounts just south and in the hilltops...and higher amounts anywhere possible depending on storm track (Potential for a foot in spots).
Western Mass (W of I-91): 6-12" in the Berkshires, 4-8" elsewhere (higher amounts possible depending on track).
S New Hampshire and Vermont (A line from US 4 to I-93 and south): 2-5" north, 5-10" south NH, with higher amounts likely the closer you get to the MA line
Boston area: 5-10" north west, 7-14" in the City, 8-16"+ possible south and east until you hit the rain. Heaviest amounts possible from Plymouth to Taunton (12-20").
Cape Cod: 3-8"
Providence: 8-16"
Hartford: 6-12"+
Southwest CT/NYC: 5-10"
Long Island: 5-10" West 6-12" East
Newburgh-Kingston: 5-10"
Northeast NJ (Bergen, Passaic, Hudson, Essex, Union): 6-12"
Northwest NJ (Sussex, Morris, Warren, Hunterdon): 3-7"+ Northwest to 6-12" southeast
Poconos: 4-8"
Allentown: 6-12"
Central NJ (North I-195): 5-10", with 6-12" possible near I-195
Southeast NJ (Atlantic, Cape May, Cumberland): 6-12"
Southwest NJ (Salem, Gloucester, Camden): 8-16"
Philly: 8-16"
North of Philly (Bucks/Montgomery): 7-14"
West of Philly (Delaware/Chester): 8-16"+
Northern Delaware (north of Dover): 8-16"
Southern Delaware: 6-12"
Salisbury: 4-8"
Baltimore: 8-16"+
Washington: 8-16"
Harrisburg: 6-12" with higher amounts possible.
Richmond: Trace south to 3-5" north.
Bullseyes look to be north and east of DC to Philly, as well as the ribbon around Boston-Providence.
Another update later.
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