Closing the Door on An Amazing Storm

A fairly amazing storm this one was. It may not have been the most widespread, biggest, largest, most worstest storm in all of forever as the hype leading into it by certain outlets made it out to be. Nor was it a redux of the Blizzard of 1888 by any means as others also made it out to be. But it was a big, unique, intriguing storm, one of the strongest and biggest for parts of the Catskills, Poconos, Northern NJ and New York City in a long, long time. It also was no cake walk in New England either. Just snow does not a storm make, and parts of New England were battered by rain, flooding and incredibly powerful winds.

The barometric pressure of the storm appears to have bottomed out at 972 mb, which is the equivalent of about a category two hurricane. It doesn't mean the impacts were akin to a hurricane (the storm develops by a much different process than tropical systems do), but it certainly packed a mean punch as it moved from about Cape Cod across New England to a position right near New York City.

One of the incredible things about NYC is that as of yesterday afternoon, Central Park had recorded 5.5" of snow in almost 1.5" of liquid. They are now approaching 21", passing 1996 and could actually exceed their total from 1888 (21.0"). The amazing December 1947 and February 2006 storms however remain pretty well out of reach (26+). But most of what fell in NYC fell over 12 hours last night, which is a huge hit. Because the storm is overhead, the wind is not nearly as bad as it could be and that's why this will fall well short of 1888's benchmark.

Some highlights regarding the wind and rain and some snow in New England....

- 2-4" of rain across Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island and southern New Hampshire and 4-8" fell in parts of Maine and the rest of New Hampshire leading to widespread flooding.

- Up to 40" of snow fell in the mountains of New Hampshire.

- Peak Wind Gusts: 67 mph Beverly, MA, 60 mph Boston, 63 mph Manchester, NH, and 50 mph at Worcester.

- A laundry list of damage reports from Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island and S New Hampshire can be found here: http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off&issuedby=BOX&product=LSR

- The list of reports from Central and Northern New Hampshire, as well as Maine is here: http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off&issuedby=GYX&product=LSR

- The list of reports from the New York City Metro Area is here: http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=LSR

In terms of snow elsewhere, here are the top 5 totals in each region....

Southeast NJ
Hammonton: 5.1"
ACY: 5.0"
Pleasantville: 5.0"
Somers Point: 4.0"
Woodbine: 3.5"

Philly Suburbs NJ/Trenton
Ewing: 8.2"
Tabernacle: 7.8"
Mount Holly: 6.6"
Mount Laurel: 6.4"
Hightstown: 6.0"

Philly & Suburbs PA/Allentown
Martins Creek: 14.7"
Bethlehem: 13.7"
Nazareth: 12.0"
Allentown: 12.0"
Montgomeryville: 11.5"

Central NJ
Newtown: 18.0"
Edison: 13.5"
Colts Neck: 12.0"
Old Bridge: 12.0"
Englishtown: 12.0"

Northwest NJ
West Milford: 28.0"
Montague: 26.5"
Sparta: 21.5"
Wantage: 20.0"
Oak Ridge: 16.0"

Northeast NJ
Roselle: 21.4"
Bergenfield: 21.0"
Mahwah: 20.0"
Ramsey: 18.5"
Lodi: 18.3"

New York City/Long Island
Great Kills (Staten Island): 26.0"
Central Park: 20.8"
Pelham (Bronx): 20.0"
Bedford Park (Bronx): 19.5"
Douglaston (Queens): 16.8"

Orange County
Monroe: 31.0"
Goshen: 27.4"
Warwick: 23.0"
Vails Gate: 22.5"
Walden: 22.0"

NYC N Suburbs (Rockland, Putnam, Westchester)
Bronxville: 21.0"
Chappaqua: 21.0"
Suffern: 17.0"
Valley Cottage: 17.0"
Yonkers: 16.4"

Maine/New Hampshire
Franconia Notch, NH: 39.0"
Randolph, NH: 37.6"
Jackman, ME: 22.0"
Madison, NH: 17.8"
Conway, NH: 17.0"

Massachusetts/Connecticut/Rhode Island
About 8" in the Berkshires, but snow will continue occurring in parts of Massachusetts and Connecticut through the day.

Vermont (May be updated)
Woodford: 8.5"
Magic Mountain: 7.0"
Bromley Mountain: 4.0"
Mt Snow: 4.0"
Stratton Mountain: 4.0"

Adirondacks
TBA

Eastern NY (Albany-Newburgh)
Hunter Mountain: 30.0"
Prattsville: 30.0"
Slide Mountain: 29.0"
Platte Cove: 24.9"
Highmount: 24.0"

Northern Catskills-Eastern Mohawk Valley
North Blenheim: 30.0"
Fulton: 28.0"
Richmondville: 25.0"
Sloansville: 25.0"
Delanson: 20.0"

Utica Region
Verona Beach: 21.0"
Westmoreland: 21.0"
Warren: 18.0"
Oneida: 17.9"
Whitesboro: 17.1"

Otsego/Delaware/Sullivan Counties
Stamford: 36.0"
New Kingston: 32.0"
Worcester: 28.0"
East Worcester: 26.0"
Margaretville: 26.0"

Syracuse Area
Cortland: 21.0"
Moravia: 21.0"
Cazenovia: 19.0"
Willet: 16.5"
Clay: 16.1"

Finger Lakes
Smithboro: 23.7"
Ithaca: 19.5"
Aurora: 16.0"
Danby: 16.0"
Freeville: 15.9"

Western New York
Tyrone: 17.0"
Caton: 14.0"
Rochester: 11.9"
Bath: 11.5"
Newark: 10.6"

Southern Tier
Smithboro: 23.7"
East Nichols: 23.6"
South Vestal: 18.9"
Binghamton Airport: 16.3"
East Maine: 14.6"

Northeast PA
Bear Creek: 28.0"
Tobyhanna: 25.0"
Jessup: 21.0"
Pocono Peak Lake: 20.5"
Glenburn: 19.9"

Central PA
Laporte: 12.0"
Mahanoy City: 11.2"
Ebensburg: 8.0"
Patton: 8.0"
Kane: 7.8"

Western Maryland/West Virginia/Southern PA
Bayard, WV: 33.2"
Garrett County, MD: 28.0"
Oakland, MD: 23.0"
Champion, PA: 16.0"
Rowlesburg, WV: 15.0"

Maryland/Delaware
Frostburg, MD: 4.7"
Colora, MD: 4.5"
Bear, DE: 3.1"
Wilmington, DE: 3.1"
New Castle, DE: 3.0"

What About Next Week?

Well, it's still way too early to get too excited. But the models continue to advertise a large storm off the East Coast coming dangerously close to being another major snowmaker for many areas from DC to NYC. There are a couple of reasons to be on the side that this storm will happen, as there are some reasons to think it may not. We're going to get probably our 2nd strongest storm of the winter here in SoCal this weekend. The last time this happened, that energy spread downstream and developed into a series of storms that battered the coast (late Jan/early Feb). The moisture will be in place. Now the question is what happens with the storm over the Northeast this weekend? If that can get far enough out of the way, it opens the door to allow this next storm to ride up the coast. If this Northeast storm is too strong, it essentially block any mechanism to allow next week's storm to lift and it would scoot underneath the remnants of this weekend's system and out to sea, likely only bringing snow to parts of VA and NC. A lot to be determined regarding this setup....we'll see what the trends are over the next couple days, and I'll keep you posted.

Mid-Evening Update on Storm

9:30 PM Eastern Update

Our storm continues across the Northeast. Satellite loops show how dynamic and powerful this storm actually is becoming. You can see the orange section in that loop surging north and due west. This is dry air, or the dry slot I spoke about earlier. A big storm often has a strong dry slot. This storm will have that. Right now, just extrapolating things out, the center of the storm will move from Cape Cod now to Connecticut by about Midnight-1 AM. The storm will loop southwest over NYC by tomorrow morning and probably just sit there and spin and steadily weaken during the day Friday. The heavy snow axis tonight will shift south and west across NJ through Northeast PA and back through Western NY. Dry air will likely surge through most of New England and possibly into the Adirondacks overnight. As that storm sits over New York and starts to weaken, the snow bands will essentially stay in place where they are, but weaken. Some pockets of heavier snow will persist at times through mid-morning tomorrow, but they'll become far less frequent than they will be overnight tonight. Once the sun comes up tomorrow, steady accumulating snow will probably be over with in most places, except the hills/mountains of PA and parts of Western NY and Ohio. As the storm pulls away over the weekend it may bring a brief period of snow to parts of New England. But the worst of this storm (at least falling from the sky) ends by about 9 AM Friday.

Wind is going to steadily increase tonight, with the strongest winds likely occurring further south and west away from the storm. Best chance for blizzard conditions will be in interior PA, where drier snow and strong winds will combine best. Localized blizzard conditions are possible anywhere. The snow has been wet enough that true blizzard conditions will likely not be widespread. However, trees and power lines weighted down by the snow stand the risk of tumbling in spots.

Additional snowfall accumulation will continue in NJ and PA tonight. The totals will vary widely. Wherever banding sets up, they will be heavy. Where banding does not, they will be more sporadic. Best chance for banding right now is drifting south from Central NJ and setting up in NW NJ and NE PA, as well as parts of the Southern Tier in NY.

Totals So Far

Very impressive numbers starting to come out from this storm. Here's a sample:

Pocono Summit, PA: 19.0"
Woodridge, NY: 18.4"
Harriman, NY: 17.2"
Highland Lakes, NJ: 17.0"
Kiamesha Lake, NY: 16.0"
Stamford, NY: 16.0"
Edmeston, NY: 14.0"
Newark, NY: 14.0"
Goshen, NY: 13.6"
Wantage, NJ: 13.5"
Prattsville, NY: 13.0"
North Blenheim, NY: 13.0"
German, NY: 13.0"
Ringwood, NJ: 12.8"
Tuxedo, NY: 12.3"
Dingman's Ferry, PA: 12.0"
West Milford, NJ: 12.0"
Albrightsville, PA: 12.0"
Endicott, NY: 11.4"
Whitesboro, NY: 11.2"
Mahwah, NJ: 11.0"
Syracuse, NY: 9.6"
Scranton, PA: 9.5"
Knox, NY: 9.3"
Marcella, NJ: 9.2"
Binghamton, NY: 8.5"
Yonkers, NY: 7.0"
Central Park: 5.5"
Newark Airport: 4.0"
Rochester, NY: 1.9"
LaGuardia Airport: 1.7"
JFK Airport: 1.1"
Albany: 0.1"

Mid-Storm Update

Just an update here on things as we wiggle our way through the storm.

Happening Now...

First a quick overview. You can see the radar image.The heaviest precipitation is currently in New England. The rain/snow line shoots up the Hudson Valley and just east of New York City now. All the major NYC sites are reporting snow at this hour. The heaviest snow is in Central New York with Rome, Syracuse, Binghamton and Dansville reporting moderate snow. A radar loops suggests banding occurring from Watertown through Syracuse to Binghamton and into the Poconos. The heaviest snow will concentrate here for the next few hours. There could also be some heavier snow west of Albany as well. Pockets of snow continue to develop around NJ this afternoon, so the best way to phrase the forecast for all of Jersey is "periods of snow, occasionally heavy at times."

Outlook for Tonight

Well, the storm is going to begin to pivot to the west and south tonight. This is going to reorient the areas of heavier snow. I expect heavy snow to move back into NJ and NE PA tonight. Some of this snow will shift south, closer to Philly as well. The heaviest snow will be north of I-195 though. Additionally, a dry slot is going to develop, which could shut some of the snow down, especially east of the Garden State Parkway in Metro NYC. Timing and locating this will be difficult and will likely be a nowcasting situation. However, if you end up under this dry slot, you will see a noticeable decrease in snow amounts.

Warm air will intrude further west into New York tonight as well, so areas east of I-81 are subject to mixing with rain, similar to what you saw the other night.

Snow will accumulate much faster now. All day today, the problem has been sun angle/strength and air temperature. With the loss of the sun and temperatures around freezing, I expect snow to accumulate at a more steady clip. The loss of accumulation today will hamper final totals, but some areas will still do quite well tonight. My thinking is easily 6-10" for the northwest quadrant of NJ and parts of Eastern PA north of I-76.

Storm Totals

Thus far from the NWS statements, some highlights:

Oneonta, NY: 13.5"
Schenevus, NY: 13.5"
Laurens, NY: 10.0"
Warwick, NY: 8.3"
Goodyear Lake, NY: 8.0"
Triangle, NY: 7.5"
Goshen, NY: 7.0"
Ringwood, NJ: 6.0"
Oneida Lake, NY: 6.0"
Clark's Creek, PA: 6.0"
Sparta, NJ: 5.7"
Allentown, PA: 5.6"
Tobyhanna, PA: 5.3"
Mahwah, NJ: 5.0"
Binghamton, NY: 5.0"
Little Falls, NY: 5.0"
Easton, PA: 4.8"
Hopatcong, NJ: 4.3"
Altamont, NY: 4.0"
Barnegat, NJ: 3.5"
Atlantic City: 3.1"
Newark: 2.8"
Central Park: 2.0"
LaGuardia Airport: 0.9"
JFK Airport: 0.1"
Philadelphia: Trace

Clearly the jackpot thus far has been that area south of Utica, east of I-81 and west of Schoharie County...Otsego County, NY coming in with well over a foot in spots. Impressive totals there thus far. Sit back and enjoy the rest of the storm!

Thursday Morning: Storm On

Just a brief entry. The concerns I have from the previous entry still stand, but the consistency of the model data is forcing me to go against my initial beliefs and go with the "better" forecast. The map looks a lot different, but there aren't any major changes. I have massaged snowfall ranges a bit so I can be more flexible.

I have expanded the area of max totals from just NW Sussex County in NJ to parts of Warren, Morris and Passaic Counties. I expanded the 2nd tier snowfall totals (now 7-14" with some higher amounts likely), to NYC, most of NJ down to about the White Horse Pike in South Jersey. I cut out snowfall amounts in Connecticut for the most part, as well as East of Albany, as it now appears mixing is just going to do work there. I trimmed expectations a bit in the Adirondacks and Green Mountains as well.

Basic concerns from south to north...

- Looks like a fairly sharp snowfall gradient in Delaware and southwest of Philly...with a big cut between areas not seeing much significant snow and areas hit hard...opposite of the earlier storms where that cutoff was on the north side of the storms.

- Still a lot of concerns in NJ/PA/NYC that surface air temperatures are going to be borderline, so even if 2" of liquid verifies, your absolute maximum is going to be 14-15". It might be snowing like crazy, but it might not all stick. The biggest concern regarding this falls right over NYC. It could be a solid 8-12"+...or just 3-4" of slop. VERY tough call there. (And at 6:30 AM it's obvious that NYC is probably not going to reach anywhere in the upper half of my forecast range and may even struggle to hit the low end, as the precip has been mainly rain to this point, so half the storm will fall as liquid)

-Winds will be howling across PA and NJ and probably in Upstate NY as well. Blizzard conditions are possible, though in many cases the snow may be too wet to really blow around as much, unlike what we saw earlier in February.

- Mixing is going to wreak havoc in the Hudson Valley. Possible that Albany stays mostly/all rain. However, any subtle shifts in the heavier bands or the storm track could bring them right back into the game. Same concerns exist in the Mohawk Valley as well.

This will be the final forecast map for this storm. I'll probably post an update on progress late this afternoon Eastern time, with perhaps a totals breakdown.

PS: Feel free to post a comment, feedback or ask a question!

Wednesday Afternoon Thoughts

You can click the map to get an idea of what I'm thinking as far as totals go.

Truth be told, I'm not sure what to think about this storm...this is a very, very unique situation. I have high confidence in the totals in Upstate NY and Northwest NJ/Northeast PA. I have medium confidence in New England and WV/MD/W PA, as well as DC/Baltimore. I have medium-low confidence in NJ/NYC/Philly/N Delaware.

Why?

A storm that tracks like this historically doesn't produce "heavy" (> 12") snowfall in Philly. Recall, last night I posted about some storms that were historically similar to this one, in some aspects. Here, once again, are those storms and their totals for Philly/NYC and the (jackpot):

Feb 14-17 1958: 13"/10.1" (Rochester: 30.6")
Dec 25-28, 1969: 5.2"/7.4" (Burlington, VT: 29.8"/Albany: 26.4"/Binghamton: 21.9")
Feb 18-20, 1972: 3.7"/6.3" (Binghamton: 24.4"/Syracuse: 20")
Jan 21-23, 1987: 8.8"/11.3" (Albany: 16.6")
Apr 18-19, 1983: 6"/1" (Scranton: 19.6"/Syracuse: 16"/Albany: 9")

The rough average looks like about 6" Philly and 8-10" NYC (somewhat ignoring the April 1983 storm due to sun angle/temperature differences). But notice, the interior got walloped. So historically, this doesn't have much support for a "big" storm near Philly...odds may be better near NYC, but given a number of factors, the odds are equal this time around I think.

That said, the models are doing the following for Philly/NYC:

GFS: 21.9"/1.4"
NAM: 6"/11.3"

Now, you tell me how confident you'd be in your forecast?

The GFS and NAM are usually a good duo to use this close into a storm. The NAM is generally too wet. The GFS can occasionally be too cold. A simple average doesn't work too bad usually at this point. However, when your difference are 10-14" between the models, taking a simple average is not a good idea.

So the bottom line?

- Major volatility is likely in Central NJ, South NJ, Philly, N Delaware and the NYC Metro area.

- Significant mixing with rain is possible all the way through the Hudson and Mohawk Valleys. This will limit snow totals here. In the Mohawk Valley, higher amounts are possible in higher terrain, and it's not out of the realm of possibility that someone on the valley floor ends up with less than 6", in my opinion. Same within the Hudson Valley. The Albany area will likely be extremely hindered by this.

- There may be a shadow effect in parts of Northeast PA or along the NY/PA border west of the Catskills, with downsloping off the Catskills drying out the air a bit and limiting snowfall (also noted this in the Champlain Valley and parts of Northern NY on the W side of the Adirondacks.

- Mixing is possible in the E Catskills as well, though elevation should take over and do work helping to keep totals elevated.

- There will be an extraordinarily sharp cut-off between snow and rain between Nassau County on Long Island and Essex County in NJ. Heavy snow becomes increasingly likely west of the Parkway.

- Potential for much higher amounts of snow (12-18") is possible north of the Atlantic City Expressway to New Brunswick, including Philly *IF* the cold air aloft comes in correctly and the precipitation sets up as shown on the GFS model. This could also extend further south into Delmarva as well. But again, historically, there is not precedence for this.

- DC/Baltimore...this isn't your storm. While some areas could pick up 4-6" of snow, most areas (especially further south near DC) will likely be shut out from much.

Late Night Update on 2/25-2/26 Storm

Just wanted to add a quick update here based on the latest model runs. Compared to this morning....

NAM: Generally about 20-40 miles further south and west than it was this morning. This also shifts the rain/snow line further west as well, through Albany. This also shifts some of the snow a little further south as well. The morning run spit out about 0.75" liquid in the form of snow in Philly. This evening run spits out over 1" liquid. Warm air intrusion cuts down on snow amounts in Central New York and Eastern New York (massive shadowing is being picked up in the Hudson Valley now). The Catskills are the big winners. This also cuts down considerably on snow in Connecticut and NYC. There is an incredibly sharp rain/snow line evident around NYC, with literally the difference between double digit snow and rain, around 10 miles. The NAM also brings heavier snow into NJ now too.

GFS: On the other hand, the GFS has now shifted a bit further east and north. This morning's run had the low centered over Warren County, NJ on Thursday evening. Tonight's run has it centered around Newburgh, NY, or about 50-60 miles further north. This really confuses the issue with the rain/snow line punching through Albany again.

So with that said, here's a risk map, basically outlining the situation...as it stands right now. This can and probably will change:

There is still a ton of uncertainty. Some of biggest questions:

- How far south will enough cold air and heavy precipitation go to bring heavy snow. Is that line in Philly? South of Philly, north of I-195? I think at least 6" is likely in Philly and most of Central NJ.

- South NJ will be dependent on this as well. I would say at least 3-6" likely there, but higher amounts are very possible.

- NYC will be another story as well. The low tracks VERY close to New York, so that will limit how much cold air can get in. There's going to be a tremendously sharp cutoff between heavy snow and heavy rain.

- Latest model prognostications are showing that incredibly strong easterly winds aloft will transport marine air clear across the Hudson Valley and into Central New York, probably to Syracuse. This will likely change them over to a mix of rain and snow or even just rain/drizzle for a time.

- A wicked "dry slot," or pocket of dry air is going to surge into this storm as well and will limit snow totals.

- That warm air may limit how much snow falls in the Berkshires or Green Mountains too.

Historical Comparisons

I have what can be considered the Bible of Northeast Snowstorms, by Paul Kocin and Louis Uccellini. It has a number of archived cases of past storms. I went back and came across five somewhat similar storms in some aspects:

Feb 14-17 1958
Dec 25-28, 1969
Feb 18-20, 1972
Jan 21-23, 1987
Apr 18-19, 1983

I won't bore you with the details, but...in all of these cases, MAJOR snows fell on the Catskills, far Northwest NJ and parts of the Poconos. In some instances, this was 20-40" of snow. There is precedence for a massive amount of snow in a few spots in those locations, coupled with strong winds, and you have the makings of a crippling blizzard in the mountains of Northeast PA and Southern NY...and possibly the Eastern Adirondacks.

Much more on all this tomorrow.

Two Storms, Major Headaches

Last night and this morning represented a major shift in the computer models regarding this storm. We now have even more confusion than we originally started with. Here's a quick rundown...

Round I

Let's talk JUST wave one...which is today through tomorrow night.

NAM: This model has a wet bias, and by spitting out 6" of liquid over the Hudson Valley between this morning and Friday evening, that's showing. It essentially pummels the Northeast. Wave one is over with by Wednesday night.That portion spits out 3-6" in Syracuse and Binghamton, 8-16" in Utica and 16-24" between Utica and Albany in the higher terrain, with 8-16" toward Albany. The rain/snow line is at I-84 with heavy snow in NW Connecticut and from High Point, NJ into the Poconos north to the Catskills. Heavy snow west of I-91 in MA/VT/CT. and lighter snows between I-91 and I-495 in MA. Your significant snow is basically bounded by Canada to the north, I-84 to the south, I-81 to the west and I-91 to the East...almost perfectly.

GFS: This model occasionally has a south and east bias. So it cuts snow off to the West. It spits out 1-3" in Syracuse, 3-6" in Utica, 7-14" in Albany, with 14-20" in the Adirondacks and possibly the Northern Catskills. It also hits the Berkshires and Greens very hard. But it basically only spits out 2/3 of what the NAM is spitting out across the board, though it shifts heavier snow closer to Boston (though not in the city).

Verdict: I love combining these two models. I'd use the NAM outline with GFS ideas on precip totals. With that....

Through Wednesday evening...

Burlington, VT: 6-10"
Syracuse: 3-6"
Utica: 6-12", with potential for higher amounts in hills East of the city.
Binghamton: 3-6"
Albany: 6-12" with 10-18" in the hills west of the City and in parts of the Taconics, Berkshires and S Green Mountains.
Hartford: Sharp cutoff between light snow south of the City and 6-10" to the north. Thinking about 3-6" in Hartford itself, with higher amounts in the hills around the city. Any shift in storm track will drag that heavier snow further south.
Providence: 1-3"
Boston: Coating-3"
Sussex Co, NJ: 2-4" low elevations, 5-10" high elevations
NYC/Essex/Bergen/Union/Hudson: Trace
Morris/Passaic/N Somerset/N Warren: 1-3", with highest amounts N & W.
Scranton: 2-4" low elevations, 3-7" high elevations.

Round II

The second round will be the more intense of the two. This will feature phasing in the jet stream and a rapidly deepening storm. The storm emerges off the Carolina coast at about 1003 mb on Wednesday evening. 24 hours later, the storm is sitting somewhere between Paterson, NJ and Provincetown, MA at about 980 mb or less. This will come close to qualifying as a "bomb." What this means is basically a rapidly deepening storm is going to crash into New England.

What's important though is the location. The European model places it on Cape Cod, whereas the GFS places it in North Jersey. What does this mean? All the models generally have the precipitation oriented similarly. But a storm sitting over Cape Cod will produce heavy snow for areas west of Albany and south into New York City, but rain for Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts and southern Vermont/Maine. A storm sitting over N NJ would produce heavy snow in Philadelphia, north of Baltimore, Central PA, most of Upstate NY, and South Jersey. But it would be rain probably in Albany, most of New England and a mix in NYC. This obviously has HUGE implications on the forecast. My gut instinct is that the GFS is too far south. But I think the Euopean has trended further west (remember, this storm was originally forecasted to be 300 miles off the Mass. coast on the European model). It may not be done trending further west. So here's just an outlook of the predominant concerns for some locations with the 2nd storm:

Thursday-Friday Risks (given my current model interpretation)
DC: Light snow
Baltimore: Light snow
South Jersey: Light to moderate snow
Philadelphia: Moderate Snow
Central NJ: Moderate Snow
Northwest NJ: Moderate to heavy snow
Northeast NJ: Moderate to heavy snow or a mix of snow/rain
New York City: Moderate snow or a mix of snow/rain
Long Island: Mainly rain
South of I-84 in Connecticut/Rhode Island: Mainly Rain
Eastern Mass (East of Worcester): Mainly rain
Western Mass/NW Connecticut: Heavy Snow
Albany: Heavy snow in the hills/Moderate to heavy snow in the City, or possibly some mixing with rain.
Syracuse/Utica/Binghamton/Scranton/Rochester: Heavy snow
Buffalo: Moderate snow
Harrisburg: Moderate snow

A couple things I can latch on to again with Storm #2:

- Blizzard conditions likely wherever it snows with the 2nd storm...leading to power outages and downed trees/wires (this looks like a wet snow).
- Flooding possible in New England.
- Heavy lake enhanced snow for areas south of Lake Ontario, especially from Rochester to the E suburbs of Buffalo.
- Shadowing will be an issue in valleys, with perhaps places slightly less snow from Round II because of downsloping off the various terrain in the region...very localized.

Snow showers should linger into much of Friday across most of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, but the worst should be over by early Friday afternoon.

Exhale...

The models show next week's storm generally just offshore. While most people might think this is a good thing, this is actually right where you want this storm to be this far out to generate a major storm in the Northeast. There's always a bias to the south and east. This storm should come north and west with time, starting around Thursday or Friday as the main driver (the storm that will hammer Southern California this weekend) comes into range of more observation tools. It's far too early to say much about it, other than I think it's likely to happen. The timeframe is from Tuesday in the Southeast to Thursday in New England. Stay tuned.

Major Changes After Next Week

Whether we're looking at a longer-term pattern change or just a chance to breathe, the overall weather pattern changes drastically after next weekend. The storm track looks to shift into the Midwest and Ohio Valley. This puts much of the East Coast on the warm side of the coin, meaning any storms would likely bring rain to the big cities and perhaps some pockets of mixing inland. Temps will be a little more tolerable, but still generally cool. The Southeast will continue with some below normal temperatures, and it appears we'll turn cooler here in California as well.

Possible Blizzard for New England?

It seems like there have only been a couple of nuisance storms this winter, complimented by a series of blizzards. When you get this sort of atmospheric blocking in place with an El Nino, well, that's really all you need.

There are a multitude of possible outcomes regarding this system. My own personal preference right now is to follow the European model, which I'll quickly describe for you.

The initial wave of precipitation lifts through New York and Northern New England tonight and early Tuesday. In general, through Tuesday afternoon, snow amounts of 1-3" are possible across much of NY and parts of CT and MA (mainly at higher elevations). Nothing major.

The next phase will be the development of a coastal storm Tuesday afternoon south of Long Island. Through Wednesday morning this will fling precipitation back into much of Eastern New York and Central and Southern New England. By Wednesday morning, we could be looking at up to 6" new snow in some of the higher elevations of NY and Southern New England.

The arbitrary rain/snow line is going to be I-84. North of this line, precipitation will be mainly snow, but with borderline temperatures, the greatest accumulations will occur at higher elevations. South of this line, the precipitation will be mainly rain, with some higher elevations picking up some snow, with the highest terrain possibly picking up locally heavy snow.

On Wednesday, that storm should lift north toward Cape Cod. By Midnight Wednesday night, accumulated snow could easily exceed 10" in some of the highest terrain of northwestern Connecticut, Massachusetts, eastern New York, New Hampshire and Vermont. Snowfall of greater than 6" is possible East of I-81 in NY. At the coast, some locally heavy rain is possible, especially across southern Connecticut and Southeast Maine/Massachusetts.

The storm weakens Thursday, with just mainly scattered snow showers across New York and New England. Then on Thursday night another nor'easter develops about 300 miles off the New England coast. Heavy rain gets thrown back at the Massachusetts and Maine coasts. Through Friday morning, some heavy snow is possible in the mountains of northern Vermont and New Hampshire, with lighter snows at lower elevations.

The storm blows up on Friday and gets drawn back toward the coast, spreading heavy snowfall back further west into much of Northern New England Friday afternoon and Eastern New York by Friday night. In fact, the European model actually send the center of the storm as far west as London, Ontario! Snow showers would wind down through the day Saturday.

All in all, this spells very heavy snow, especially in the mountains of Northern New England. With a very strong storm back pedaling toward the coast, the potential exists for very strong winds and blizzard conditions north of I-90 in the higher terrain of New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts and New York.

So where are the risks? The GFS model goes bonkers Thursday night and sends heavier snow back into Eastern New York. When all is said and done, tremendous snow falls across most areas north of NYC and Long Island, with perhaps 30-40" in the Southern Green Mountains and northern Berkshires. North of Route 17 in NY, snow of > 12" falls from Buffalo to Albany. In my own opinion, given this model's inconsistency and its tendency to be a bit cold, it's probably a little too snow happy. This would likely represent an extreme high end risk though, so it's worth monitoring, because if the snow amounts produced by this model verified, it would be a paralyzing storm for most of New York State and New England.

For folks in Boston, no solution favors snow for you really, so the risk there is low. Shadowing will become an issue in the Hudson Valley, so snow amounts will vary greatly across Eastern New York south of Albany.

Through the Crystal Ball

My early March storm is still there. In theory, the current track wouldn't cause problems, but given model biases regarding storm tracks, folks from Atlanta-Boston will want to keep an eye on this, as if it starts shifting back toward the coast, heavy snow will become a player. Stay tuned.