The Next Threat?

So the last storm generally behaved as expected, though it was very slow to pull out of areas between Philly and Hartford. Some of the heavier snows though did fall well north of Boston, pretty much as anticipated. So on to the next threat.

The players on the field are a little different now. The active California storm track returns this weekend with a series of 2-3 storms likely impacting much of the State. I personally think the potential is brewing for a significant winter event...for parts of the interior Northeast; areas that have generally been shut out this winter.

Things will evolve like this: A storm and cold front are going to swing into Central and Southern California Friday night and Saturday. All that moisture will slide east of the Rockies on Sunday and spin up a storm somewhere in the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle region. That storm should track into Tennessee/Kentucky by Monday, with a ribbon of snow across parts of the Midwest, including Kansas, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio. The storm should arrive in the Mid-Atlantic by Tuesday morning. Right now, it appears this will likely be a nuisance storm for DC, Baltimore in Philly, with perhaps a period of snow, followed by a changeover to sleet and rain. Accumulations should generally be light. Some more substantial snows would occur in interior Pennsylvania, but likely only Advisory level criteria snow.

Beyond this, things become more uncertain. As has been the case many times this winter, storms exiting the Atlantic coast have run into a brick wall, in the form of atmospheric blocking over Greenland. This slows the storm down and generally forces it to "blow up," or strengthen formidably. While it doesn't appear this storm is going to "bomb out," or strengthen incredibly fast like we saw with several other storms, it will strengthen as it moves off the Jersey Shore and toward the Gulf of Maine. The storm is forced to put the brakes on and may sit, spin or even build back inland.

What does it mean?

Heavy snow seems likely for the mountains of New Hampshire, Vermont and much of Maine. Snows will also impact parts of Massachusetts and New York State, with perhaps some considerable lake enhancement downwind of Lake Ontario. The timeframe of this looks to be from Tuesday morning through Thursday. This will make the ski resorts of New England quite happy I believe. So we'll have to follow this closely over the next couple days. The models have had a lot of issues resolving features beyond this weekend, so there is still time for this scenario to change. Stay tuned.