Not So Much a Storm as a Nuisance

What I liked to call a plain old nuisance storm will be impacting the Northeast over the next 72 hours. However, if you live in parts of Northern New England, this may be a bit more than just a nuisance. This storm should buck seasonal trends and travel to the north and west of where
many storms this winter have gone.

We're down to two scenarios now. Scenario one tracks the storm along the coast of New England, from about Delaware Bay to Long Island to Cape Cod. This keeps a tighter storm together and would drop heavy snows across interior North Jersey, Connecticut and Massachusetts. Scenario two tracks the storm further north and west, along or just inland from the coast by about 25 miles. This would shift the potential for heavier snow much further inland toward the Poconos, Catskills and Berkshires.

Timing: Snow should arrive in DC by mid-afternoon Monday and spread north and east. Snow will likely fall as a mix of rain and snow south and east of I-95, with potentially just rain in spots at the coast. Cold, nasty rain. Everything will convert over to snow Monday night and end early Tuesday.

How Much and What: Either scenario brings roughly 1-4" to the Big Cities from DC-NYC, with potential for slightly higher amounts in Boston. Lesser amounts would fall on the coast. Higher amounts would fall in the north and west suburbs of the Cities, but probably not much more than 6" or so.

If Scenario one verifies, 4-8", with isolated higher amounts, would be possible north of I-78 and west of I-287 into Northwest Jersey, the southern Catskills across into the Northwest half of Connecticut and interior Massachusetts, with the potential for healthy snows into areas east of I-91 and south of I-90 as well in Massachusetts, Connecticut and Rhode Island. This would limit the north and west extent of most considerable snow.

If scenario two verifies, heavy snow would fall from the Poconos through the Catskills and into interior New England, with limited snows south and east to Boston, Hartford, etc. The bullseye would be in the Poconos and/or Catskills. This scenario would also create dry slot issues, with some areas seeing the precipitation shut off.

Scenario two seems to be somewhat of the consensus right now, but scenario one fits the seasonal trend better, so we'll see. Basically, if you live from about Allentown through Northwest Jersey into New England, you'll want to watch this. Those from DC through New York City, your outcome is slightly more certain and less impactful.

We'll see.

Looking ahead, I'm growing a little concerned that the end of the month might see the potential for a major storm. There's the chance that another weak system brings some light snows to the Northeast next weekend. But the storm track is forecasted to potentially shift back into California following that weekend. Every time this has happened this winter, someone East of the Rockies has paid for it. The models have for awhile now been indicating tremendous amounts of moisture flooding into the US after this time period, primarily due to the El Nino storm track and the subtropical jet. Should this happen, the potential exists for another major storm somewhere in the East. Far too early to say what and where, but I have a sneaky suspicion March may come roaring in like a lion.