Tracking Another Storm for the East

Since the second blizzard struck, there's been a consensus that another, weaker storm was going to be on the radar for early next week for folks in the East. Unfortunately, this forecast isn't going to be any easier than the others. The general consensus to me appears that there are three possibilities for this storm. All three have it hitting Monday afternoon in DC/Baltimore to Tuesday night in New England.

Option 1.) The upper level energy coming out of Eastern Canada doesn't quite latch into the storm system in time to really blow it up. This leads to a disjointed storm, with generally light snows in DC, MD, PA, and NJ, with slightly heavier snows north and west of the Big Cities. Then, as the storm finally organizes, it hits parts of New England fairly hard, with heavy snow north of I-90 and east of I-87 in N MA, NH, VT and ME. South and east of the Big Cities, you may even see a mix with freezing rain or even rain. Snow amounts would be 1-3" from DC-NYC, 3-6" for most of North Jersey (N of I-78), with a pocket of 6-10" in the higher elevation of Sussex County and the Poconos, as well as the Catskills. Boston would end up with 3-6", but areas north and west of the City would see 6-12".

Option 2.) The upper level energy coming out of Eastern Canada moves a bit faster and gets latched into the storm sooner. This would create slightly better snows for DC, MD, PA and NJ, with several inches in the Big Cities, but nothing crippling. But this gets going for areas north of I-80 and east of I-81, hammering parts of far north NJ, the Poconos and much of Central New York, then spreading moderate snows into New England. Snow amounts would be 2-4" from DC-BOS, 1-3" East of there. 4-8" would fall in Central PA and much of North NJ, north of I-78. There would be a pocket of 6-12" in Sussex County, NJ, the Catskills and the Poconos through about the southern Berkshires. The heaviest snow would be in Central NY, south of I-90, where 8-16" would fall, with a bullseye between Binghamton and Syracuse. The rest of New England would see a general 3-6".

Option 3.) This would be almost a combination of options one and two, with a stronger storm than option one, but the same general pattern. This would spread modest snows into all the big cities, with NYC and Boston being hit the hardest. The heaviest snow would fall north of I-195 in NJ and east of I-87, with a bullseye over interior CT, RI or MA. Snow amounts would be a general 2-4" from DC to Philly, 3-6" from Philly to NYC and Long Island through Boston. Hartford up through Worcester would see about 4-8", with some higher amounts. Everyone else would see a general 1-4".

So the only one of these scenarios that produces truly intense snows in scenario two, which to me seems like an outlier at this time. Right now, I'd favor Option 3, with the heaviest snow in parts of New England, and generally nuisance snows elsewhere. But time will tell.

Reviewing the last two storms

Here's my self-imposed verification on the last two storms to hit. I'll be using my final forecast as the benchmark, using NWS official totals as my verification. Color coded, where green is a hit, red a miss, and yellow is mixed results.

Blizzard #1
NYC: 1-4" Bronx to 4-8" Staten Island/Brooklyn (higher amounts possible) (Actual: Zip Bronx, Trace Manhattan, 1-2" Brooklyn, 4-6" Staten Island..right idea, but overdone to the north).
Morristown: 3-6"(Actual: < style="color: rgb(255, 255, 0);">New Brunswick: 6-10"(Actual: 5-8"..a little high, but acceptable)
Coastal Monmouth/Ocean: 6-10" Sandy Hook, 10-15" Belmar, 12-18" Seaside Heights, 12-24" LBI (6-10" Sandy Hook, 8-12" Belmar, 15" Pt Pleasant, 16-20" Seaside Heights, 14-18" LBI...acceptable).
Trenton: 10-15" (Actual: 10-12". Acceptable.)
Philly: 10-15" North, 12-18" Airport (14-20" North, 24-30" Airport...right idea, way too low)
Allentown: 6-10" (6-8". Acceptable)
Atlantic/Cape May/Cumberland Counties: 15-24", with isolated higher amounts. (12-25". Acceptable, but few higher amounts)
Wilmington: 12-20" (18-27" Right idea, too low)
Dover: 15-24"+ (17-24". Acceptable)
Baltimore: 15-30" (24.8" BWI, 20-32" Areawide. A little too broad a range here).
DC: 15-30" (17.8" DCA. 18-28" elsewhere. Better than Balt, but still a bit too broad).
Delmarva: 12-24" south of Dover, 6-12" Salisbury, 2-5" Chincoteague (12-25" South of Dover, 12-20" Salisbury, 6-10" Chincoteague. Way underdone south of Delaware.)

Blizzard #2
Albany: 3-7", with higher amounts just south and in the hilltops (locally up to 8-10") (0.5-3" ALB, 1-3" Hilltops. Bad miss)
Western Mass (W of I-91): 6-12" in the Berkshires, 4-9" elsewhere (0.5-3" Bad miss)
S New Hampshire and Vermont (A line from US 4 to I-93 and south): 2-5" north, 4-9" south NH, with higher amounts likely the closer you get to the MA line..very sharp cutoff between light snow and significant snow. (Right idea, but way off on totals. 1-2")
Boston area: 4-9" north west, 6-12" in the City, 7-14" possible south and east, with isolated higher amounts (1-5" City, 1-3" N & W, 3-8" south and east. Right idea again, but bad miss on totals).
Cape Cod: 6-12"+ (3-8" Miss)
Providence: 7-14" (2-10" Miss)
Hartford: 7-14" (2-5" Miss)
Southwest CT/NYC: 6-12" (Locally higher amounts possible) (4-12" North, 8-15" South)
Long Island: 5-16" (Some eastern areas may see less...some areas on the interior island may see more) (7-16" Islandwide...decent amounts, not quite up to snuff).
Hudson Valley: 3-8" in the Valley, 6-12" in the Catskills (8-14" South, 3-12" Central, less north. Generally a miss).
Northeast NJ (Bergen, Passaic, Hudson, Essex, Union): 6-12", iso higher amounts (8-14", with higher amounts in Union...generally ok).
Northwest NJ (Sussex, Morris, Warren, Hunterdon): 5-10" Northwest to 6-12" southeast (6-12" Sussex, 8-15" south. A little low on totals)
Poconos: 5-10" (6-18" Low on totals)
Allentown: 7-14" (12-18" Low on totals)
Central NJ (North of I-195): 7-14" (12-20". Low on totals)
Southeast NJ (Atlantic, Cape May, Cumberland): 4-9" inland, 3-6" on the Coast. Some light icing and/or sleet accumulation (3-8" Coast, 4-12" inland. Acceptable)
Southwest NJ (Salem, Gloucester, Camden): 8-16"+ (8-18 North, 12-20 South. Acceptable)
Philly: 8-16"+ (12-20". Acceptable. 15.8" PHL)
North of Philly (Bucks/Montgomery): 7-14" (12-24" Too low).
West of Philly (Delaware/Chester): 10-20" (14-27" Too low).
Northern Delaware (north of Dover): 8-16" (8-14". Acceptable).
Southern Delaware: 3-6" inland, 2-4" on the coast (4-8", with higher amounts north. Too low).
Salisbury: 2-5" (2-10". Too low).
Baltimore: 10-18" (12-24" Right idea, a little low, 19.5" BWI).
Washington: 7-14" (10.5" DCA, 8-16". Right idea).
Harrisburg: 8-16" with higher amounts possible toward York and Lancaster (8-16" North, 12-24" South. Acceptable)
Richmond: Trace south to 1-4" north. (2-4" areawide. Acceptable).

Overall, I did better on the first storm than the second. But I did do ok in illustrating the potential wrinkles in the 2nd storm as well. So as long as people read and listened to why the forecast was what it was, they'd understand what happened. But, if people just look at amounts, they'll be less forgiving. Which is understandable. Some good lessons learned though for future storms!