It seems like there have only been a couple of nuisance storms this winter, complimented by a series of blizzards. When you get this sort of atmospheric blocking in place with an El Nino, well, that's really all you need.
There are a multitude of possible outcomes regarding this system. My own personal preference right now is to follow the European model, which I'll quickly describe for you.
The initial wave of precipitation lifts through New York and Northern New England tonight and early Tuesday. In general, through Tuesday afternoon, snow amounts of 1-3" are possible across much of NY and parts of CT and MA (mainly at higher elevations). Nothing major.
The next phase will be the development of a coastal storm Tuesday afternoon south of Long Island. Through Wednesday morning this will fling precipitation back into much of Eastern New York and Central and Southern New England. By Wednesday morning, we could be looking at up to 6" new snow in some of the higher elevations of NY and Southern New England.
The arbitrary rain/snow line is going to be I-84. North of this line, precipitation will be mainly snow, but with borderline temperatures, the greatest accumulations will occur at higher elevations. South of this line, the precipitation will be mainly rain, with some higher elevations picking up some snow, with the highest terrain possibly picking up locally heavy snow.
On Wednesday, that storm should lift north toward Cape Cod. By Midnight Wednesday night, accumulated snow could easily exceed 10" in some of the highest terrain of northwestern Connecticut, Massachusetts, eastern New York, New Hampshire and Vermont. Snowfall of greater than 6" is possible East of I-81 in NY. At the coast, some locally heavy rain is possible, especially across southern Connecticut and Southeast Maine/Massachusetts.
The storm weakens Thursday, with just mainly scattered snow showers across New York and New England. Then on Thursday night another nor'easter develops about 300 miles off the New England coast. Heavy rain gets thrown back at the Massachusetts and Maine coasts. Through Friday morning, some heavy snow is possible in the mountains of northern Vermont and New Hampshire, with lighter snows at lower elevations.
The storm blows up on Friday and gets drawn back toward the coast, spreading heavy snowfall back further west into much of Northern New England Friday afternoon and Eastern New York by Friday night. In fact, the European model actually send the center of the storm as far west as London, Ontario! Snow showers would wind down through the day Saturday.
All in all, this spells very heavy snow, especially in the mountains of Northern New England. With a very strong storm back pedaling toward the coast, the potential exists for very strong winds and blizzard conditions north of I-90 in the higher terrain of New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts and New York.
So where are the risks? The GFS model goes bonkers Thursday night and sends heavier snow back into Eastern New York. When all is said and done, tremendous snow falls across most areas north of NYC and Long Island, with perhaps 30-40" in the Southern Green Mountains and northern Berkshires. North of Route 17 in NY, snow of > 12" falls from Buffalo to Albany. In my own opinion, given this model's inconsistency and its tendency to be a bit cold, it's probably a little too snow happy. This would likely represent an extreme high end risk though, so it's worth monitoring, because if the snow amounts produced by this model verified, it would be a paralyzing storm for most of New York State and New England.
For folks in Boston, no solution favors snow for you really, so the risk there is low. Shadowing will become an issue in the Hudson Valley, so snow amounts will vary greatly across Eastern New York south of Albany.
Through the Crystal Ball
My early March storm is still there. In theory, the current track wouldn't cause problems, but given model biases regarding storm tracks, folks from Atlanta-Boston will want to keep an eye on this, as if it starts shifting back toward the coast, heavy snow will become a player. Stay tuned.
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