Just a brief entry. The concerns I have from the previous entry still stand, but the consistency of the model data is forcing me to go against my initial beliefs and go with the "better" forecast. The map looks a lot different, but there aren't any major changes. I have massaged snowfall ranges a bit so I can be more flexible.
I have expanded the area of max totals from just NW Sussex County in NJ to parts of Warren, Morris and Passaic Counties. I expanded the 2nd tier snowfall totals (now 7-14" with some higher amounts likely), to NYC, most of NJ down to about the White Horse Pike in South Jersey. I cut out snowfall amounts in Connecticut for the most part, as well as East of Albany, as it now appears mixing is just going to do work there. I trimmed expectations a bit in the Adirondacks and Green Mountains as well.
Basic concerns from south to north...
- Looks like a fairly sharp snowfall gradient in Delaware and southwest of Philly...with a big cut between areas not seeing much significant snow and areas hit hard...opposite of the earlier storms where that cutoff was on the north side of the storms.
- Still a lot of concerns in NJ/PA/NYC that surface air temperatures are going to be borderline, so even if 2" of liquid verifies, your absolute maximum is going to be 14-15". It might be snowing like crazy, but it might not all stick. The biggest concern regarding this falls right over NYC. It could be a solid 8-12"+...or just 3-4" of slop. VERY tough call there. (And at 6:30 AM it's obvious that NYC is probably not going to reach anywhere in the upper half of my forecast range and may even struggle to hit the low end, as the precip has been mainly rain to this point, so half the storm will fall as liquid)
-Winds will be howling across PA and NJ and probably in Upstate NY as well. Blizzard conditions are possible, though in many cases the snow may be too wet to really blow around as much, unlike what we saw earlier in February.
- Mixing is going to wreak havoc in the Hudson Valley. Possible that Albany stays mostly/all rain. However, any subtle shifts in the heavier bands or the storm track could bring them right back into the game. Same concerns exist in the Mohawk Valley as well.
This will be the final forecast map for this storm. I'll probably post an update on progress late this afternoon Eastern time, with perhaps a totals breakdown.
PS: Feel free to post a comment, feedback or ask a question!
2 comments:
~7:20 est, I've been up for about a half hour and it's been snowing the whole time, but nothing has stuck.
Jeff: Exactly my big concern...seems to be the big problem right now in South Jersey/Philly. Surface temps are so warm, it's incredibly difficult to accumulate rapidly during the daylight hours in late February. You'll do better later on I'm sure, but, like I said in the entry, it could be snowing like crazy, but not accumulating. Some people are going to be surprised at how much snow they get, but how little ends up on the ground relative to that.
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