Last night and this morning represented a major shift in the computer models regarding this storm. We now have even more confusion than we originally started with. Here's a quick rundown...
Round I
Let's talk JUST wave one...which is today through tomorrow night.
NAM: This model has a wet bias, and by spitting out 6" of liquid over the Hudson Valley between this morning and Friday evening, that's showing. It essentially pummels the Northeast. Wave one is over with by Wednesday night.That portion spits out 3-6" in Syracuse and Binghamton, 8-16" in Utica and 16-24" between Utica and Albany in the higher terrain, with 8-16" toward Albany. The rain/snow line is at I-84 with heavy snow in NW Connecticut and from High Point, NJ into the Poconos north to the Catskills. Heavy snow west of I-91 in MA/VT/CT. and lighter snows between I-91 and I-495 in MA. Your significant snow is basically bounded by Canada to the north, I-84 to the south, I-81 to the west and I-91 to the East...almost perfectly.
GFS: This model occasionally has a south and east bias. So it cuts snow off to the West. It spits out 1-3" in Syracuse, 3-6" in Utica, 7-14" in Albany, with 14-20" in the Adirondacks and possibly the Northern Catskills. It also hits the Berkshires and Greens very hard. But it basically only spits out 2/3 of what the NAM is spitting out across the board, though it shifts heavier snow closer to Boston (though not in the city).
Verdict: I love combining these two models. I'd use the NAM outline with GFS ideas on precip totals. With that....
Through Wednesday evening...
Burlington, VT: 6-10"
Syracuse: 3-6"
Utica: 6-12", with potential for higher amounts in hills East of the city.
Binghamton: 3-6"
Albany: 6-12" with 10-18" in the hills west of the City and in parts of the Taconics, Berkshires and S Green Mountains.
Hartford: Sharp cutoff between light snow south of the City and 6-10" to the north. Thinking about 3-6" in Hartford itself, with higher amounts in the hills around the city. Any shift in storm track will drag that heavier snow further south.
Providence: 1-3"
Boston: Coating-3"
Sussex Co, NJ: 2-4" low elevations, 5-10" high elevations
NYC/Essex/Bergen/Union/Hudson: Trace
Morris/Passaic/N Somerset/N Warren: 1-3", with highest amounts N & W.
Scranton: 2-4" low elevations, 3-7" high elevations.
Round II
The second round will be the more intense of the two. This will feature phasing in the jet stream and a rapidly deepening storm. The storm emerges off the Carolina coast at about 1003 mb on Wednesday evening. 24 hours later, the storm is sitting somewhere between Paterson, NJ and Provincetown, MA at about 980 mb or less. This will come close to qualifying as a "bomb." What this means is basically a rapidly deepening storm is going to crash into New England.
What's important though is the location. The European model places it on Cape Cod, whereas the GFS places it in North Jersey. What does this mean? All the models generally have the precipitation oriented similarly. But a storm sitting over Cape Cod will produce heavy snow for areas west of Albany and south into New York City, but rain for Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts and southern Vermont/Maine. A storm sitting over N NJ would produce heavy snow in Philadelphia, north of Baltimore, Central PA, most of Upstate NY, and South Jersey. But it would be rain probably in Albany, most of New England and a mix in NYC. This obviously has HUGE implications on the forecast. My gut instinct is that the GFS is too far south. But I think the Euopean has trended further west (remember, this storm was originally forecasted to be 300 miles off the Mass. coast on the European model). It may not be done trending further west. So here's just an outlook of the predominant concerns for some locations with the 2nd storm:
Thursday-Friday Risks (given my current model interpretation)
DC: Light snow
Baltimore: Light snow
South Jersey: Light to moderate snow
Philadelphia: Moderate Snow
Central NJ: Moderate Snow
Northwest NJ: Moderate to heavy snow
Northeast NJ: Moderate to heavy snow or a mix of snow/rain
New York City: Moderate snow or a mix of snow/rain
Long Island: Mainly rain
South of I-84 in Connecticut/Rhode Island: Mainly Rain
Eastern Mass (East of Worcester): Mainly rain
Western Mass/NW Connecticut: Heavy Snow
Albany: Heavy snow in the hills/Moderate to heavy snow in the City, or possibly some mixing with rain.
Syracuse/Utica/Binghamton/
Buffalo: Moderate snow
Harrisburg: Moderate snow
A couple things I can latch on to again with Storm #2:
- Blizzard conditions likely wherever it snows with the 2nd storm...leading to power outages and downed trees/wires (this looks like a wet snow).
- Flooding possible in New England.
- Heavy lake enhanced snow for areas south of Lake Ontario, especially from Rochester to the E suburbs of Buffalo.
- Shadowing will be an issue in valleys, with perhaps places slightly less snow from Round II because of downsloping off the various terrain in the region...very localized.
Snow showers should linger into much of Friday across most of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, but the worst should be over by early Friday afternoon.
Exhale...
The models show next week's storm generally just offshore. While most people might think this is a good thing, this is actually right where you want this storm to be this far out to generate a major storm in the Northeast. There's always a bias to the south and east. This storm should come north and west with time, starting around Thursday or Friday as the main driver (the storm that will hammer Southern California this weekend) comes into range of more observation tools. It's far too early to say much about it, other than I think it's likely to happen. The timeframe is from Tuesday in the Southeast to Thursday in New England. Stay tuned.
Major Changes After Next Week
Whether we're looking at a longer-term pattern change or just a chance to breathe, the overall weather pattern changes drastically after next weekend. The storm track looks to shift into the Midwest and Ohio Valley. This puts much of the East Coast on the warm side of the coin, meaning any storms would likely bring rain to the big cities and perhaps some pockets of mixing inland. Temps will be a little more tolerable, but still generally cool. The Southeast will continue with some below normal temperatures, and it appears we'll turn cooler here in California as well.
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