No Rest for the Weary....

After another unbelievable storm in the East, time to focus attention on the next big thing. I'll do a post-storm(s) wrap up probably Friday and just verify myself. I know I busted hard in New England with this current storm, but I had some other successes vs. prevailing forecasts as well. Win a few, lose a few...that's how it goes.

Snow in the Deep South

The next system is a southern one. Looks like some snow will end up on the Gulf Coast from this one. I posted an image here...if you look at the top right panel of it, you can see how much of the forecasted precipitation is expected to be snow. Looks like an area of 0.6" just north of Pensacola. This area actually extends back to Dallas. So I would argue that 2-5" with isolated 5-7" amounts are possible from just north of DFW over to Shreveport, LA and into Southern Mississippi. The highest amounts look possible from about Tyler, TX-Meridian, MS. 1-3" amounts possible in Central/North-Central Alabama/Mississippi. 1-2" possible from just north of New Orleans over to just north of Panama City. A trace of snow is possible down to the Gulf Coast itself west of Tallahassee.

This gets us through about Friday morning. This storm will move to the coast and likely drop some snow on Central and Southern Georgia. We could see up to 2 to maybe 3" into Atlanta and much of the rest of Georgia south of there. The big question marks occur as this thing reaches the coast. Some of the models are indicating a fair amount of moisture gets thrown back into cold air. It's too early to say much with certainty, but a light snow accumulation is also possible in coastal North Carolina south of Cape Lookout and along the coast of South Carolina as well. All in all, an interesting storm to follow.

Don't Look Now....

...but the models continue to indicate a VERY interesting pattern in the Northeast next Monday and Tuesday. A storm system diving out of the Canadian Prairies is forecasted to swing across the Dakotas, Iowa, Illinois and into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, dropping some light snows in these areas. This system will have lots of energy, but will be somewhat starved for moisture (the air over the East is going to be so cold, it limits how much moisture each storm can have...the old adage, "it's too cold to snow."). But, the models show a very dynamic pattern over the Northeast and decide to try and blow up this storm as it approaches the coast. Given seasonal trends and recent model consistency, this idea seems plausible, and if this were to occur, additional accumulating snow would be likely from North Carolina, through DC, BWI, NJ and into Long Island and coastal New England. Will this actually happen? Too early to say, but climatologically speaking, this wouldn't be a drastic deviation from both recent and historical climatology for a good storm in the Northeast.

Overall, even if this does come to fruition, at this point, snow totals look generally lighter, and the snow consistency would be MUCH drier than you've seen over the last week, which could actually give a boost to the overall totals. At this point, I would say at minimum a 2-5" system is likely, but there is high risk that this could be more interesting. Stay tuned.

And truth be told, for the next 2 weeks, I don't see anything to indicate the weather is going to turn terribly quiet. Still plentiful moisture available courtesy of El Nino and an active jet stream...and plenty of blocking in the atmosphere to help amplify things. The only question is who, what and where.

Here in California....

...it will be boring the next 6-10 days, with plentiful sunshine and temperature soaring once again...possibly to near 80 degrees. Don't hate.