Snowmageddon, Part IV

Another challenging storm looks to be moving through parts of the Northeast on Tuesday night through Wednesday night. This one is more complex than the last few, as straight snow won't be the only form of precipitation. The mess comes in two waves...one Tuesday afternoon through early Wednesday morning. The second comes Wednesday early morning in DC to Wednesday evening in Boston.

The first wave will be complex. It will likely start out as some snow, become heavy, and then transition over to a mix of rain and freezing rain south and east of I-95. The heaviest precip will fall from DC to South Jersey. The best chance for any ice accumulation will be north and west of a line from about Jackson, NJ-Salem, NJ-Annapolis, MD and north and west to I-95. Freezing rain, if you'll recall, just means it's raining and freezing on surfaces. There could be some sleet as well, but this looks to be primarily a rain vs. freezing rain vs. snow event.

Now, north and west of I-95, snow will develop and become heavy around or after midnight from Southeast PA through Central and Northern NJ. Unlike the last few storms, snow should have little to no problem spreading all the way up to at least I-84 and possibly further north.

Then, as the storm begins to explode off the Delmarva coast, a new band of heavy snow..just snow...will develop west of DC and spread north and east. In addition, the northern and eastern fringe of the original stuff from Tuesday night will begin expanding and intensifying over southeast New England....this includes Boston, Providence and areas east of I-91. Cape Cod will likely see a mix or rain with this batch.

That area of heavy snow near DC will expand and lift northeast through Philly, South Jersey and Central Jersey and then move offshore by Wednesday evening.

Thunder will be possible in this area of snow and ridiculous snow rates are once again likely, which will lead to a disparity in the highest snow totals. In addition, the wind will rev up, creating localized blizzard conditions once again. It will turn quite cold behind this storm.

The biggest trouble spots regarding forecasting accumulation are going to be along and north of I-84. These areas will see snow, but the question as to how much is incredibly variable, with some models saying as little as 2-4" and other saying spots over 12-14".

Conditions should be clearing by Wendesday evening. Weather looks ok for most folks through the weekend. Lake snows will develop behind this storm. Another system may spread some light wintry precip from north Texas to parts of the Southeast on Thursday night and Friday.

Initial snowfall estimates:

Albany: 3-8", with higher amounts just south and in the hilltops...and higher amounts anywhere possible depending on storm track (Potential for a foot in spots).
Western Mass (W of I-91): 6-12" in the Berkshires, 4-8" elsewhere (higher amounts possible depending on track).
S New Hampshire and Vermont (A line from US 4 to I-93 and south): 2-5" north, 5-10" south NH, with higher amounts likely the closer you get to the MA line
Boston area: 5-10" north west, 7-14" in the City, 8-16"+ possible south and east until you hit the rain. Heaviest amounts possible from Plymouth to Taunton (12-20").
Cape Cod: 3-8"
Providence: 8-16"
Hartford: 6-12"+
Southwest CT/NYC: 5-10"
Long Island: 5-10" West 6-12" East
Newburgh-Kingston: 5-10"
Northeast NJ (Bergen, Passaic, Hudson, Essex, Union): 6-12"
Northwest NJ (Sussex, Morris, Warren, Hunterdon): 3-7"+ Northwest to 6-12" southeast
Poconos: 4-8"
Allentown: 6-12"
Central NJ (North I-195): 5-10", with 6-12" possible near I-195
Southeast NJ (Atlantic, Cape May, Cumberland): 6-12"
Southwest NJ (Salem, Gloucester, Camden): 8-16"
Philly: 8-16"
North of Philly (Bucks/Montgomery): 7-14"
West of Philly (Delaware/Chester): 8-16"+
Northern Delaware (north of Dover): 8-16"
Southern Delaware: 6-12"
Salisbury: 4-8"
Baltimore: 8-16"+
Washington: 8-16"
Harrisburg: 6-12" with higher amounts possible.
Richmond: Trace south to 3-5" north.

Bullseyes look to be north and east of DC to Philly, as well as the ribbon around Boston-Providence.

Another update later.