Tuesday-Wednesday Storm Update (and some other tidbits!)

New model data is in late this evening, and here we go again.

Here are my previous thoughts, which generally are unchanged: http://mattlanza.blogspot.com/2010/02/snowmageddon-part-iv.html

However, there have been some significant changes in the new data regarding both the northern extent of the snow, as well as where the heaviest totals may end up occurring.

One of the biggest question marks this morning was how much snow Boston to the Hudson Valley and points north would receive. The newer data indicates that some considerable changes in those areas are to be expected. Precip amounts came in considerably lighter in Vermont and New Hampshire and the Boston Metro area, as well as Albany. All the models we use are generally in decent agreement regarding this trend.

One other item of note: Mentioned this in the other entry, but wanted to emphasize here that this will be a much windier storm than the previous, especially inland. Blizzard conditions will be likely on the coasts from Delmarva through Cape Cod. Localized blizzard conditions will be possible inland as well. Remember, by definition, you only need strong winds and low visibility due to snow to meet blizzard criteria...snowfall rate, temperature, etc. mean nothing to the definition of "blizzard." So even though amounts will be less with this storm overall than the one this weekend, this storm may be more like a blizzard than the previous.

So with that in mind, here are revised snow total estimates. I have bolded those that are seeing significant differences compared to my thoughts 12 hours ago:

Initial snowfall estimates:

Albany: 2-6", with higher amounts just south and in the hilltops
Western Mass (W of I-91): 4-8" in the Berkshires, 3-6" elsewhere (higher amounts possible depending on track).
S New Hampshire and Vermont (A line from US 4 to I-93 and south): 1-3" north, 2-15" south NH, with higher amounts likely the closer you get to the MA line..very sharp cutoff between light snow and significant snow.
Boston area: 3-6" north west, 5-10" in the City, 6-12" possible south and east until you hit the rain.
Cape Cod: 6-12"+
Providence: 6-12"
Hartford: 6-10"
Southwest CT/NYC: 6-12" (Higher amounts possible in I-95 corridor in CT and Brooklyn/Queens)
Long Island: 6-12" West 8-16" East
Hudson Valley: 2-6" Kingston area to 5-10" Newburgh/Harriman
Northeast NJ (Bergen, Passaic, Hudson, Essex, Union): 6-12", iso higher amounts
Northwest NJ (Sussex, Morris, Warren, Hunterdon): 5-10" Northwest to 6-12" southeast
Poconos: 6-12"
Allentown: 7-14"
Central NJ (North of I-195): 6-12"+
Southeast NJ (Atlantic, Cape May, Cumberland): 5-10" inland, 4-8" on the Coast. Some light icing and/or sleet accumulation
Southwest NJ (Salem, Gloucester, Camden): 8-16"+
Philly: 8-16"+
North of Philly (Bucks/Montgomery): 7-14"
West of Philly (Delaware/Chester): 10-18"
Northern Delaware (north of Dover): 8-16"
Southern Delaware: 6-12" inland, 4-8" on the coast
Salisbury: 3-7"
Baltimore: 10-20"
Washington: 8-16"
Harrisburg: 7-14" with higher amounts possible.
Richmond: Trace south to 3-5" north.

I'll have another update for you all Tuesday afternoon around the time of first pitch.

Other News...

Looks like another round of rain for Southern California Tuesday into Wednesday. Lost in the Blizzard were a round of significant mudflows/mudslides that damaged or destroyed several homes downhill from the burn areas from the massive Station Fire this past August/September. This round may also produce some storms that cause heavy rainfall rates in the mountains. The trajectory is just offshore, so this could actually produce some decent rains for the LA Metro area.

This next storm in SoCal will become the next storm of interest further east, but this time for folks in Dixie, with snow expected in parts of Central Texas and into Louisiana. Some questions as to how much (air temperatures may not be cold enough for significant accumulation), but snow should be falling from Dallas to Shreveport for the middle to end of the week. In addition, as this spreads east on Friday/Saturday, snow is possible across Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia. There are questions as to the exact track of the storm, but interestingly enough, some of the new data brings a band of snow from just north of Pensacola, FL and Mobile, AL to just north of New Orleans into Baton Rouge. Other data suggests this potential for snow will be further north, perhaps into Atlanta. So stay tuned.

Continued wicked cold in the East and South over the next 5-10 days. This will help to keep most storminess suppressed to the south (aka the old adage, it's too cold to snow). There may be a weak system early next week that brings lighter snows across the Ohio Valley into the East. Still too soon to say much about that. Stay tuned.