Quick Wrap on the Forecast for Wednesday

After a day of active weather out here in LA, with thunderstorms this afternoon, time to put a wrap on the forecast portion of the storm in the East. Model data is only partially useful at this point. The radar image to the right shows the first wave of precipitation from the storm in the East. Heavy snow has fallen from Philly into South Jersey and parts of Delaware. What's of more interest is the band of "yellow" on the radar in Cape May County, NJ over into Central Delaware. That's generally a good radar signature of sleet or freezing rain, rather than snow...a rough estimate of a rain/snow line. So you can see what's going on. While the first part of this storm did admittedly put a little more snow down in South NJ than I expected, there is a ton of warm air not far above the ground in that area. That means a mix is likely for the rest of the night until the back edge moves through tomorrow morning.

We're already seeing good snow reports, with 1-4" around DC and 3-6" around Baltimore, 2-5" around Philly/N Delaware. Thus, my snowfall totals south of NYC will remain unchanged.

Still liking the idea of the heaviest amounts in Southwest NJ down to BWI and up into Southeast PA. Newer models suggest less snow deeper into PA, back toward Harrisburg/Lancaster. I would lower amounts there a bit. Also like a secondary maximum in Southeast Massachusetts. Boston is still on the fringe of the heavier snow....tough call for you. Long Island will be vulnerable to mixing, so again a high bust potential there on either side. NYC still looks good for a 6-12" snow, with isolated potential for some higher amounts. Generally looks like amounts will be lighter further north into CT/Hudson Valley.

So we'll see. This was a very complex forecast. Lots of uncertainty in New England/Upstate NY and some uncertainty in other areas that did not exist in the last storm. Hopefully it all works out.

Oh, and by the way, the newest model runs suggesting what was a benign system early next week develops into yet another major storm from Baltimore-Boston. This one would have limited to no precipitation type issues and would be a cold, dry snow. Long way away. Stay tuned.